why shouldn't I be a political analyst too?

 Why shouldn’t I be an Analyst too?
Since everyone is a political analyst, let me also dip my feet in it.

Anyways, majority of the pollsters got it horribly wrong. Shows the extent of accuracy of their methodology. The pollsters getting it wrong by such a margin should be a humbling lesson to them. But if you notice-they act as if nothing happened and instead come up with new theories for the LS result.
Telling the reasons after the results is not a difficult task. Hindsight is 20/20
So, let me give my analysis. Of course there would be many errors in my analysis too.

1.Stepping back a little, look around the world. Post Covid-Checkout the results of the Election of major democracies. From US to New Zealand. Covid stuck a nasty blow at the economy of the world. Poor suffered more than the rich, simply because they had less savings. In such a scenario- massive incumbency was generated against the current premier of their nation. Majority of them lost in the election after that. Covid had such a effect.
2024 LS election was the Post covid election -in that sense. Perhaps most didn’t take this factor into consideration.

Narendra Modi buckled the global trend.

2.Indians are known to be notorious for changing govts after one term.( except in some pockets).Either they get bored of it or their expectations are too high when they elect one.
 Its simply astonishing that , Indians have elected the same govt for third consecutive time at the center. Because they have never done that ever , since 1947.
Supporters of BJP getting gloomy or the congress supporters getting happy  for the 2024 results is actually over the top reaction. Both of them haven’t seen the results in the context of India’s History.
 

3. Since the focus is on BJP performing ‘below par’ , also why the slogan ‘400 paar’ didn’t click, lets see BJP’s performance.
It was not a National wave election. Therefore localized factors played differently at various states.
For eg: UP, Maharashtra, W Bengal  gave less seats to BJP than expected. Rest of the states were pretty much in line. Its those 60 seats that gave 60 less than 2019.
However all these three states behaved differently-
IN UP: Combination of Caste+ freebies+ whisper campaign of ‘BJP will remove reservations’ managed to reduce seats by 35 . Its said the Candidate selection of BJP- UP also didn’t bring Enthusiam among core BJP supporters.
But Bihar -which has similar caste+less developed situation buckled the UP trend and gave good support to Bihar.
Maharastra: Combination of too many parties +confusion among voters +rural distress perhaps went wrong for BJP.
W Bengal: Mamatha managed to do better ,as she gave a perception that- she is not with INDI, ensuring the Muslim votes completely behind her( crushing congress+ CPM in the process there).
Take away for BJP is – they need to look out for the counter to “ whisper campaigns”, Play the caste cards too, Device ways to reduce anti-incumbency of their candidates.

    4. What about congress: If you notice the celebration at their camp on June 4th, They seem to be genuinely surprised at the results. Probably they also believed the exit poll results and thought would never cross 60 seats.
99 was a big pleasant surprise for them.
But once the initial Euphoria was over- it dawned to them that, they are still not in power for the third consecutive time.
A political party has to have power to remain relevant.( fortunately for them, They hold power in a few states)
Congress however has to ponder- why they couldn’t hold on to the seats for; example in Karnataka ( which they won decisively just six months ago).
The bigger take away is, though they have a got a lease of life- its time they come up with a new strategy, new way of operating in politics. Why didn’t their freebies resonate in most of the states? Why didn’t their Manifesto agree with people?

Election In India is not for beginners. Its too huge, too complex.
Forget the foreigners, even seasoned Indians sometimes cannot figure it out.

That’s why , take this’ Post- Election’ analysis with a big pinch of salt plus something else.!!!😀